Fair Value Tracker: Understand Estimated local market Mode
A practical Fair Value Tracker lesson for understanding estimated local market as fallback math, not a live local quote or scanner opportunity.
Lesson promise
Frame the question
What changes when local market is estimated instead of live?
Check the evidence
Use 5 guided chapters to read freshness, confidence, and caveats in order.
Move into the tool
Open Open Fair Value Tracker with a checklist instead of a blank screen.
Educational workflow only. No trade recommendations, personalized advice, leverage guidance, or guaranteed outcomes.
Chapter 01
Understand why live local market can be unavailable
Trader question
What changes when local market is estimated instead of live?
Estimated local market starts as a source-state problem. Provider availability, market session, or stale local quote state can prevent the tool from treating the local leg as observed.
Desk checklist
- Name the local market source state before reading basis.
- Separate provider/session diagnosis from trading interpretation.
- Treat estimated mode as a fallback state, not a broken page.
Interactive proof
Data quality state and Estimated local market label
Use the mode switch to compare a live local market quote with an estimated local market fallback.
Estimated local market mode keeps the formula teachable while refusing to imply a live local quote. Hidden fields and skipped scanner rows are part of the safety design.
Why live local market can be unavailable
Provider, session, and freshness states move across the screen so learners understand estimated mode as a source-state outcome.
A source panel shows provider, market session, and cache freshness.
One source condition weakens.
The local market leg changes from live to estimated.
The read changes from live context to diagnosis.
Lesson notes
The full chapter walkthrough in reading form — use it to review the lesson or skim ahead before working through the interactive steps above.
Chapter 01
Understand why live local market can be unavailable
What changes when local market is estimated instead of live?
Estimated local market starts as a source-state problem. Provider availability, market session, or stale local quote state can prevent the tool from treating the local leg as observed.
Data quality state and Estimated local market label
- Name the local market source state before reading basis.
- Separate provider/session diagnosis from trading interpretation.
- Treat estimated mode as a fallback state, not a broken page.
Chapter 02
Treat fallback math as fallback math
What does the backend estimate, and what does it refuse to imply?
The model can keep normalized COMEX, fair import, and formula context visible. It refuses to imply that the local local market leg is an observed market quote when it is estimated.
Overview model fields, local quote state, and signal_state = estimated_mcx
- Keep the formula path visible.
- Do not call the estimated local value observed.
- Use signal_state = estimated_mcx as a guardrail.
Chapter 03
Read hidden fields as safety behavior
Why are global basis fields null in estimated mode?
When local market is estimated, global basis, net global basis, and global basis percent can imply false precision. Hiding them is the product protecting the learner from a live-basis conclusion.
Hidden/null global basis, basis net global, and basis percent fields
- Do not treat null as missing education.
- Name what the hidden field would have implied.
- Keep only the safer formula/context language.
Chapter 04
Notice why scanner skips estimated rows
Should estimated local market rows compete in the scanner?
Scanner rows are for prioritizing monitoring, not for ranking fallback math. Estimated local market rows should be skipped so they do not look equivalent to live local-market comparisons.
Scanner behavior and estimated-row exclusion
- Scanner is a monitoring queue, not an execution queue.
- Estimated rows should not rank beside live rows.
- Treat skipped rows as safety, not loss of value.
Chapter 05
Write the estimated-mode note
Which conclusion is no longer allowed when local market is estimated?
The safe note says the formula path is visible, local market is estimated, and a live local quote must return before basis or scanner conclusions are allowed.
Explanation panel, desk note, and re-check condition
- Say local market is estimated.
- Say the read is formula context only.
- Name the re-check condition: live local market quote returns.
Sources used for this tutorial
Next step
Open the tool with the checklist beside you.
Move from the lesson into the matching Bullion Brains tool, keep the checklist visible, and treat the output as evidence until the caveats are clear.