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GOLD · weekly9 Jul 2026

Gold Weekly — Week 28, 2026

Gold holds near $4,120 into a CPI-heavy week as the COT regime shifts to distribution

Bullion Brains Research3 min read

Key takeaways

  • 1Spot gold trades around $4,120, roughly flat on the day, with the dollar near 101 and the US 10-year near 4.57%.
  • 2The COT regime classifier has shifted to 'distribution' (from neutral) as of the 7 July report, though crowding stays low and squeeze-risk is elevated.
  • 3Managed-money net length built from about 94k to a peak of 120k contracts over recent weeks before easing to 116k on the latest report.
  • 4Gold sits at a slight discount to its import-parity fair value while silver carries a premium; July is historically a firm month for gold, and a US CPI print leads Tuesday's calendar.

At a glance

Jul seasonality
+2.2%
78% positive · 9y
Positioning (COT)
Distribution
crowding 29/100 · 100% conf
Import parity
z +0.09
5th percentile
Next catalyst
CPI (YoY)
Jul 14
01

Where gold stands

Spot gold is trading near $4,120 per ounce, little changed on the day. The macro backdrop is quiet: the US Dollar Index sits near 101 and the US 10-year yield is around 4.57%.

The gold-silver ratio is near 69, with both metals close to flat over the session. Stepping back, the 12-week trend chart shows the COMEX continuous future has drifted down from a late-April high near $4,720 to about $4,100 — gold now sits close to the low end of that three-month range.

Market snapshot

Live spot and macro reference · 1-day change

Last1D
Spot Gold (USD/oz)4,119.73-0.05%
Spot Silver (USD/oz)59.86-0.04%
Gold–Silver Ratio68.82
US Dollar Index (DXY)100.97+0.01%
US 10Y Yield4.57+0.66%

Gold — 12-week trend

COMEX continuous future · weekly close (USD)

$4,104
02

What moved the market

US data through the week leaned soft-to-mixed rather than decisive. Initial jobless claims came in at 215k against a 218k forecast — still a firm labour signal. Existing home sales printed 4.09M versus a 4.19M forecast, a modest miss, and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI eased to 54.0 (forecast 54.2) while its prices component stayed elevated at 67.7.

None of these was a standalone driver for gold; the tape has been consolidating ahead of the inflation data later in the week.

From the full report

Gold seasonality — average monthly return

Last 10 years · India spot · % change

Current month highlighted · green = historically positive, red = negative.

Managed-money net positioning (COMEX)

Net futures, '000 contracts · newer to the right

Premium / discount to fair value

Spot vs the import-parity fair-value model

Gold -1.45%
Silver +4.73%
DiscountPremium

Week ahead

Scheduled releases · times in IST

WhenEventForecastPrev
Tue 14 Jul · 18:00US CPI (YoY)4.2%
Tue 14 Jul · 18:00US Core CPI (MoM)0.3%0.2%
Tue 14 Jul · 18:00US CPI (MoM)-0.1%0.5%
Wed 15 Jul · 07:30CN GDP (YoY)5%
Wed 15 Jul · 18:00US PPI (MoM)0.2%1.1%
Wed 15 Jul · 20:00US Crude Oil Inventories2.998M

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For educational purposes only. Not investment advice or a recommendation. Data may be delayed, revised, or incomplete.