Win rate

Win rate is the proportion of past occurrences that ended positively, for example the percentage of years a particular month finished up for gold. It is a consistency measure that complements average and median return.

For a trader, win rate adds nuance to a seasonal read. A month with a high average but a mediocre win rate may owe its average to a few outsized years, while a month with a strong win rate and median agreement can be a more reliable candidate for research.

Win rate alone is incomplete. It says nothing about the size of wins or losses, so it is read alongside median return, dispersion, worst return, and sample size. A high win rate on thin history or with a wide downside should still be treated cautiously.