GoldFrom the archive
Fed decision and US retail sales: the gold calendar
The Fed rate decision and US retail sales in the 16 September 2026 gold calendar: a review covering 7 high-impact and 29 medium-impact calendar events.
At a glance
Figures recorded in the archived calendar · 16 Sep 2026
- CPI (YoY): reported 3.1%; forecast 3.1%; previous 2.9%.
- Core Retail Sales (MoM): reported 1.4%; forecast 0.6%; previous -0.2%.
- Retail Sales (MoM): reported 1.2%; forecast 0.8%; previous -0.5%.
Market analysis
As of 16 September 2026, the Bullion Brains economic calendar recorded 89 events in Asia/Kolkata time. CPI (YoY) was the highest-ranked entry in the archived calendar. This review examines the release evidence and the links between economic news and MCX gold.
The economic calendar on 16 September 2026
The Bullion Brains calendar recorded 89 events on 16 September 2026. Release times in this report use the Asia/Kolkata time zone.
The calendar included 7 high-impact and 29 medium-impact observations. “Above forecast” and “below forecast” describe the difference from consensus; neither establishes whether a release is bullish or bearish for gold.
Scroll horizontally to compare all figures
| Event | IST time | Market | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI (YoY) | 11:30 | GBP | high | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% |
| Core Retail Sales (MoM) | 18:00 | USD | high | 1.4% | 0.6% | -0.2% |
| Retail Sales (MoM) | 18:00 | USD | high | 1.2% | 0.8% | -0.5% |
| Crude Oil Inventories | 20:00 | USD | high | -0.64M | -1.6M | -0.391M |
| Fed Interest Rate Decision | 23:30 | USD | high | 4% | 4% | 3.75% |
| FOMC Economic Projections | 23:30 | USD | high | — | — | — |
| FOMC Statement | 23:30 | USD | high | — | — | — |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 02:00 | USD | medium | 7.14M | -1.8M | -0.3M |
| Westpac Consumer Sentiment | 02:30 | NZD | medium | 89.5 | — | 80.4 |
| Current Account (YoY) | 04:15 | NZD | medium | -14.58B | — | -16.3B |
| Current Account (QoQ) | 04:15 | NZD | medium | -1.67B | -2.57B | -1.09B |
| Trade Balance | 05:20 | JPY | medium | -1,105.6B | -1,052.6B | -638.3B |
These figures describe a past session. Revisions and the response across related markets matter more than the initial headline.
What the releases mean for gold
Inflation data influences gold through expectations for real interest rates and central-bank policy. The release needs to be assessed against forecasts and revisions, then alongside the response in yields and the dollar. An inflation reading alone does not establish a reliable price direction.
Growth data can have competing effects on gold. Stronger activity can lift yields, while weaker activity can increase demand for defensive assets. The response across related markets helps establish which influence prevailed.
Central-bank statements and sovereign bond auctions can change both the level and shape of the yield curve. Their relevance to MCX gold also depends on the response in COMEX gold and USDINR, which underpin the local fair-value comparison.
Energy data can affect inflation expectations and sentiment across commodities. For gold and silver, it provides background rather than a trading signal: an unexpected inventory reading alone does not establish a direct effect on metal prices.
- Interest rates: assess the release alongside Treasury yields and interest-rate expectations.
- Currency effects: consider the dollar first, then USDINR and any local divergence driven by the RBI.
- COMEX and MCX: compare matching active contracts before interpreting a premium or discount.
- Physical market: distinguish local premiums and taxes from the international price move.
Reading the market response
A sound interpretation begins with the release time and any revisions to the actual, forecast or previous figures. The initial response in U.S. yields and the dollar provides context for comparing COMEX gold, USDINR and the active MCX contract at matching times.
Comparisons with MCX need consistent units, contract months, duty and tax assumptions, and clearly stated data times. When prices come from different sessions, an apparent gap may reflect the timing difference rather than a market dislocation.
This review does not reconstruct historical price moves. The archived calendar establishes the recorded release information; attributing an intraday move to a particular release would require market data from the same period.
- Refer to the originating agency release and any subsequent revisions.
- Use matching COMEX, USDINR and MCX timestamps when calculating parity.
- Distinguish scheduled speeches from releases of economic data.
- Consider which evidence would challenge the initial interpretation.
Sources and limitations
The calendar information is drawn from the Investing.com feed and presented in India time. Official statistical agencies and central banks remain the authoritative sources for definitions, revisions and notes accompanying each release.
This is a historical review, not a current trading signal or investment recommendation. It does not imply that a similar release will produce the same market response in a future session.
Editorial review and verification
Automated review checked the principal high-impact entrys in the Bullion Brains archived economic calendar for 16 September 2026 against primary or official-source records where available. UK CPI/CPIH, U.S. retail sales, U.S. commercial crude inventories, the Federal Reserve decision, FOMC statement and FOMC projection publication were verified against ONS, Census, EIA and Federal Reserve pages. Remaining medium and low-impact entries, provider forecasts, API crude-stock consensus, and market-positioning implications remain observations supplied by the calendar provider only. No causal gold, COMEX, USDINR or MCX price move is inferred.
This report was reviewed by an automated editorial system and has not received human sign-off. The source list distinguishes primary-source checks from information supplied by the calendar provider; a calendar link alone does not establish independent verification.
Questions & answers
What did the economic calendar show on 16 September 2026?
The Bullion Brains calendar recorded 89 events, including 7 high-impact and 29 medium-impact observations. The table presents the selected actual, forecast and previous figures, with release times in IST.
Does an above-forecast release automatically mean gold should fall?
No. Gold can respond through interest rates, the dollar, demand for defensive assets, positioning and local currency movements. The response across these markets needs to be considered before assigning a direction or a cause.
How can traders use this historical review?
Read the report to understand the release sequence and the evidence used to interpret it. Consult the live calendar and fair-value tool for current timestamps. This review provides educational context, not a buy or sell signal.
Sources & methodology13 references
Editorial review
Automated review · Bullion Brains automated editorial review
Author: Bullion Brains Research Desk. This article includes AI-generated content.
Published · Updated .
This article has not received human editorial sign-off.
Automated review completed .
Automated review checked the material high-impact rows in the Bullion Brains 2026-09-16 persisted calendar snapshot against primary or official-source records where available. UK CPI/CPIH, U.S. retail sales, U.S. commercial crude inventories, the Federal Reserve decision, FOMC statement and FOMC projection publication were verified against ONS, Census, EIA and Federal Reserve pages. Remaining medium and low-impact rows, provider forecasts, API crude-stock consensus, and market-positioning implications remain provider-snapshot observations only. No causal gold, COMEX, USDINR or MCX price move is inferred.
Source references
References include publication dates, supporting evidence and any limitations.
Bullion Brains economic calendar snapshot: 2026-09-16
Open sourceUsed in this analysis
- Bullion Brains persisted 89 calendar occurrences for 2026-09-16, with timestamps normalized to Asia/Kolkata for this report.
- CPI (YoY) (GBP) was recorded at 11:30 IST as 3.1% actual versus 3.1% forecast and 2.9% previous.
- Core Retail Sales (MoM) (USD) was recorded at 18:00 IST as 1.4% actual versus 0.6% forecast and -0.2% previous.
- Retail Sales (MoM) (USD) was recorded at 18:00 IST as 1.2% actual versus 0.8% forecast and -0.5% previous.
- Crude Oil Inventories (USD) was recorded at 20:00 IST as -0.64M actual versus -1.6M forecast and -0.391M previous.
- Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD) was recorded at 23:30 IST as 4% actual versus 4% forecast and 3.75% previous.
- FOMC Economic Projections (USD) was recorded at 23:30 IST as a scheduled qualitative event with no numeric consensus field.
- FOMC Statement (USD) was recorded at 23:30 IST as a scheduled qualitative event with no numeric consensus field.
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (USD) was recorded at 02:00 IST as 7.14M actual versus -1.8M forecast and -0.3M previous.
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment (NZD) was recorded at 02:30 IST as 89.5 actual versus 80.4 previous.
- Current Account (YoY) (NZD) was recorded at 04:15 IST as -14.58B actual versus -16.3B previous.
- Current Account (QoQ) (NZD) was recorded at 04:15 IST as -1.67B actual versus -2.57B forecast and -1.09B previous.
- Trade Balance (JPY) was recorded at 05:20 IST as -1,105.6B actual versus -1,052.6B forecast and -638.3B previous.
Limitations
- Calendar values can be revised by the originating statistical agency after the first release.
- A calendar observation does not by itself prove the direction or size of a gold, USDINR, COMEX, or MCX price move.
Investing.com Economic Calendar
Open sourceUsed in this analysis
- The Bullion Brains event store is populated from the Investing.com economic-calendar occurrence feed.
Limitations
- Bullion Brains preserves a dated snapshot so later upstream revisions remain distinguishable.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics release calendar
Open sourceUsed in this analysis
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is the primary verification route for relevant release timing, definitions, or revisions cited by this report.
Limitations
- Use the dated agency release or table—not the calendar label alone—when a later revision matters.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release schedule
Open sourceUsed in this analysis
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is the primary verification route for relevant release timing, definitions, or revisions cited by this report.
Limitations
- Use the dated agency release or table—not the calendar label alone—when a later revision matters.
Federal Reserve events calendar
Open sourceUsed in this analysis
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is the primary verification route for relevant release timing, definitions, or revisions cited by this report.
Limitations
- Use the dated agency release or table—not the calendar label alone—when a later revision matters.
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Open sourceUsed in this analysis
- U.S. Energy Information Administration is the primary verification route for relevant release timing, definitions, or revisions cited by this report.
Limitations
- Use the dated agency release or table—not the calendar label alone—when a later revision matters.
Euro indicators release calendar
Open sourceUsed in this analysis
- Eurostat is the primary verification route for relevant release timing, definitions, or revisions cited by this report.
Limitations
- Use the dated agency release or table—not the calendar label alone—when a later revision matters.
Consumer price inflation, UK: August 2026
Open sourceUsed in this analysis
- The ONS August 2026 CPI bulletin was released on 16 September 2026 and reported CPI at 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in July, with CPI up 0.5% month-on-month.
- The same ONS bulletin reported CPIH at 3.3% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month for August 2026.
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services: August 2026
Open sourceUsed in this analysis
- The Census Bureau's 16 September 2026 advance retail release reported August 2026 retail and food services sales of $773.9 billion, up 1.2% from the previous month.
- The release stated that the June 2026 to July 2026 percent change was revised from down 0.6% to down 0.5%.
Weekly Petroleum Status Report Table 1: U.S. petroleum balance sheet and stocks
Open sourceUsed in this analysis
- The archived 16 September 2026 EIA Table 1 CSV showed commercial crude oil stocks excluding SPR at 423.429 million barrels for the week ending 11 September 2026, down 0.640 million barrels from the prior week.
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
Open sourceUsed in this analysis
- The Federal Reserve's 16 September 2026 FOMC statement said the Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent.
- The statement was approved for release by a 12-0 vote at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
FOMC meeting calendars, statements, and minutes
Open sourceUsed in this analysis
- The Federal Reserve calendar lists the September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting with statement, implementation note, press conference and projection materials.
September 16, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version
Open sourceUsed in this analysis
- The Federal Reserve published September 16, 2026 FOMC projection materials for the meeting associated with the Summary of Economic Projections.
Evidence review
CPI (YoY) (GBP) was recorded at 11:30 IST as 3.1% actual versus 3.1% forecast and 2.9% previous.
Claim sourceCPI (YoY): 3.1% actual versus 3.1% forecast and 2.9% previous; stored occurrence 556200.
Contradiction check: Snapshot accessed 2026-09-17; subsequent agency revisions may supersede the initial value.
Reviewer action: Recheck the originating agency if the value is later revised.
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (USD) was recorded at 18:00 IST as 1.4% actual versus 0.6% forecast and -0.2% previous.
Claim sourceCore Retail Sales (MoM): 1.4% actual versus 0.6% forecast and -0.2% previous; stored occurrence 556265.
Contradiction check: Snapshot accessed 2026-09-17; subsequent agency revisions may supersede the initial value.
Reviewer action: Recheck the originating agency if the value is later revised.
Retail Sales (MoM) (USD) was recorded at 18:00 IST as 1.2% actual versus 0.8% forecast and -0.5% previous.
Claim sourceRetail Sales (MoM): 1.2% actual versus 0.8% forecast and -0.5% previous; stored occurrence 556266.
Contradiction check: Snapshot accessed 2026-09-17; subsequent agency revisions may supersede the initial value.
Reviewer action: Recheck the originating agency if the value is later revised.
Crude Oil Inventories (USD) was recorded at 20:00 IST as -0.64M actual versus -1.6M forecast and -0.391M previous.
Claim sourceCrude Oil Inventories: -0.64M actual versus -1.6M forecast and -0.391M previous; stored occurrence 557314.
Contradiction check: Snapshot accessed 2026-09-17; subsequent agency revisions may supersede the initial value.
Reviewer action: Recheck the originating agency if the value is later revised.
Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD) was recorded at 23:30 IST as 4% actual versus 4% forecast and 3.75% previous.
Claim sourceFed Interest Rate Decision: 4% actual versus 4% forecast and 3.75% previous; stored occurrence 516972.
Contradiction check: Snapshot accessed 2026-09-17; subsequent agency revisions may supersede the initial value.
Reviewer action: Recheck the originating agency if the value is later revised.
FOMC Economic Projections (USD) was recorded at 23:30 IST as a scheduled qualitative event with no numeric consensus field.
Claim sourceFOMC Economic Projections: a scheduled qualitative event with no numeric consensus field; stored occurrence 556898.
Contradiction check: Snapshot accessed 2026-09-17; subsequent agency revisions may supersede the initial value.
Reviewer action: Recheck the originating agency if the value is later revised.
FOMC Statement (USD) was recorded at 23:30 IST as a scheduled qualitative event with no numeric consensus field.
Claim sourceFOMC Statement: a scheduled qualitative event with no numeric consensus field; stored occurrence 557183.
Contradiction check: Snapshot accessed 2026-09-17; subsequent agency revisions may supersede the initial value.
Reviewer action: Recheck the originating agency if the value is later revised.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (USD) was recorded at 02:00 IST as 7.14M actual versus -1.8M forecast and -0.3M previous.
Claim sourceAPI Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 7.14M actual versus -1.8M forecast and -0.3M previous; stored occurrence 557174.
Contradiction check: Snapshot accessed 2026-09-17; subsequent agency revisions may supersede the initial value.
Reviewer action: Recheck the originating agency if the value is later revised.
Westpac Consumer Sentiment (NZD) was recorded at 02:30 IST as 89.5 actual versus 80.4 previous.
Claim sourceWestpac Consumer Sentiment: 89.5 actual versus 80.4 previous; stored occurrence 557259.
Contradiction check: Snapshot accessed 2026-09-17; subsequent agency revisions may supersede the initial value.
Reviewer action: Recheck the originating agency if the value is later revised.
Current Account (YoY) (NZD) was recorded at 04:15 IST as -14.58B actual versus -16.3B previous.
Claim sourceCurrent Account (YoY): -14.58B actual versus -16.3B previous; stored occurrence 556160.
Contradiction check: Snapshot accessed 2026-09-17; subsequent agency revisions may supersede the initial value.
Reviewer action: Recheck the originating agency if the value is later revised.
Current Account (QoQ) (NZD) was recorded at 04:15 IST as -1.67B actual versus -2.57B forecast and -1.09B previous.
Claim sourceCurrent Account (QoQ): -1.67B actual versus -2.57B forecast and -1.09B previous; stored occurrence 556161.
Contradiction check: Snapshot accessed 2026-09-17; subsequent agency revisions may supersede the initial value.
Reviewer action: Recheck the originating agency if the value is later revised.
Trade Balance (JPY) was recorded at 05:20 IST as -1,105.6B actual versus -1,052.6B forecast and -638.3B previous.
Claim sourceTrade Balance: -1,105.6B actual versus -1,052.6B forecast and -638.3B previous; stored occurrence 556163.
Contradiction check: Snapshot accessed 2026-09-17; subsequent agency revisions may supersede the initial value.
Reviewer action: Recheck the originating agency if the value is later revised.
Exports (YoY) (JPY) was recorded at 05:20 IST as 19.3% actual versus 18.2% forecast and 23.2% previous.
Claim sourceExports (YoY): 19.3% actual versus 18.2% forecast and 23.2% previous; stored occurrence 556166.
Contradiction check: Snapshot accessed 2026-09-17; subsequent agency revisions may supersede the initial value.
Reviewer action: Recheck the originating agency if the value is later revised.
Adjusted Trade Balance (JPY) was recorded at 05:20 IST as -0.84T actual versus -1T forecast and -0.68T previous.
Claim sourceAdjusted Trade Balance: -0.84T actual versus -1T forecast and -0.68T previous; stored occurrence 557345.
Contradiction check: Snapshot accessed 2026-09-17; subsequent agency revisions may supersede the initial value.
Reviewer action: Recheck the originating agency if the value is later revised.